Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 0.358437 0.411704 0.469553 0.536967 0.613286 0.696922 0.795436
2025-07-20 0.286350 0.357824 0.441544 0.546536 0.674353 0.824555 1.014075
2025-07-27 0.237547 0.320889 0.425530 0.565816 0.748129 0.976108 1.281749
2025-08-03 0.199777 0.290585 0.412318 0.586022 0.825835 1.143294 1.593021
2025-08-10 0.158275 0.247586 0.375229 0.568713 0.851788 1.247379 1.837725
2025-08-17 0.123746 0.207824 0.335692 0.541124 0.858777 1.326025 2.058212
2025-08-24 0.101328 0.182035 0.312178 0.532948 0.892282 1.446335 2.354166
2025-08-31 0.083334 0.159793 0.290236 0.523302 0.921531 1.563363 2.659784
2025-09-07 0.072374 0.147471 0.282457 0.535434 0.987286 1.745379 3.090004
2025-09-14 0.058959 0.127845 0.258423 0.515239 0.994818 1.832297 3.374121
2025-09-21 0.049656 0.114221 0.242906 0.507715 1.023139 1.957182 3.736795
2025-09-28 0.041707 0.101655 0.227129 0.496899 1.043346 2.069338 4.089039
2025-10-05 0.037097 0.095640 0.224093 0.512121 1.118138 2.294817 4.683579
2025-10-12 0.031890 0.087094 0.214196 0.511605 1.161783 2.467417 5.200689
2025-10-19 0.028258 0.081520 0.209864 0.522453 1.230700 2.698120 5.858672
2025-10-26 0.025264 0.076866 0.206808 0.535708 1.306822 2.952715 6.594406
2025-11-02 0.020957 0.067589 0.190778 0.515852 1.306547 3.048817 7.016022
2025-11-09 0.017030 0.058303 0.172787 0.487896 1.283234 3.092447 7.331615
2025-11-16 0.014519 0.052538 0.162853 0.478463 1.302409 3.231675 7.870572
2025-11-23 0.012375 0.047315 0.153305 0.468283 1.318132 3.364771 8.410705
2025-11-30 0.011171 0.044869 0.151228 0.478129 1.386165 3.627584 9.276228
2025-12-07 0.009330 0.039643 0.139710 0.459170 1.375943 3.702159 9.709259
2025-12-14 0.008061 0.036103 0.132633 0.451840 1.395853 3.852597 10.340018